Introduction: Challenging the Concealed Carry Myth of “More Guns, More Crime”
For decades, opponents of concealed carry laws have warned that allowing more Americans to carry firearms would inevitably lead to higher rates of violent crime. But a newly updated research paper by economist John R. Lott and co-author Carlisle E. Moody dismantles that argument with rigorous data, showing not only that law-abiding concealed carry permit holders do not increase crime, but also that their presence may contribute to greater public safety.
This comprehensive study, revised in 2024 and published on the Social Science Research Network, dives deep into nationwide crime data, firearm thefts, and police clearance rates. The authors ask two key questions: Do concealed carry permit holders contribute to firearm thefts? And do they make policing less effective?
The short answers: No. And no.
Permit Holders Are Among the Most Law-Abiding Citizens
One of the first points emphasized in the paper is that concealed carry permit holders are extraordinarily law-abiding. In 19 states with detailed records, the average revocation rate of concealed carry permits is just 0.1%. Most revocations are due to administrative reasons like the permit holder moving or passing away—not due to criminal activity.
In fact, concealed carry permit holders are statistically less likely to break the law than even police officers. For example:
- In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of firearms violations at 1/12th the rate of police officers.
- Michigan data shows that non-permit holders are:
- 2.4x more likely to be arrested for DUI
- 10.6x more likely to drive recklessly
- 34.1x more likely to drive under the influence of drugs
This data directly refutes the claim that people who legally carry guns are more prone to reckless or criminal behavior.
Do Permit Holders Cause Guns to Be Stolen? The Data Says No.
Another common criticism of concealed carry is that more legally owned guns mean more chances for those guns to be stolen and used in crimes. Lott and Moody test this hypothesis by analyzing a new dataset from the National Crime Information Center and FBI Uniform Crime Reports.
Their findings: There is no statistically significant relationship between the number of concealed carry permits and the number of guns stolen per capita.
Even when they introduce lags into their models (accounting for time delay effects), the results are the same: Permit holders are not fueling the black market in stolen guns.
Critics often cite studies like Donohue et al. (2022) to claim the opposite. But those studies rely on proxy variables (like dummy indicators for whether a state has a “right to carry” law) and assume all such laws and populations are uniform—a flawed approach that doesn’t hold up under the closer scrutiny Lott and Moody apply.
Police Support Concealed Carry
Opponents often argue that more guns make police work harder. But survey data tells a different story:
- A PoliceOne survey of over 15,000 officers found that 76% believe armed citizens help reduce crime, and over 91% support law-abiding citizens carrying firearms.
- A National Association of Chiefs of Police survey confirms similar support over multiple years.
Lott and Moody’s empirical analysis backs this up: concealed carry permit holders do not negatively affect police effectiveness. Police clearance (arrest) rates for violent crimes, including murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, show no decline in correlation with higher rates of concealed carry permits.
In Fact, Police Effectiveness May Improve Slightly
While not always statistically significant, there are some positive correlations between higher rates of permit holders and increased arrest rates for certain crimes, such as aggravated assault. This suggests that armed citizens may be aiding police efforts, either by intervening or detaining suspects until police arrive.
This possibility aligns with real-world examples where permit holders have stopped active shooters, prevented assaults, or protected themselves and others during crimes in progress.
Constitutional Carry States Show No Increase in Gun Thefts or Crime
The study also looks at “constitutional carry” states—those that allow permitless concealed carry. Critics argue that these laws could lead to chaos. But again, the data says otherwise:
- There is no significant increase in stolen firearms in these states.
- Police effectiveness does not decline.
Even when controlling for variables like burglary rates, income, demographics, and law enforcement staffing, constitutional carry laws have no observable negative impact on public safety.
Key Policy Implications
This study has major implications for public policy:
- There is no justification to restrict concealed carry based on fears of increased crime.
- Permit holders are safer, more law-abiding, and more responsible than the general public.
- Law enforcement generally supports legally armed citizens.
Lawmakers considering tighter restrictions on concealed carry should reconsider. Not only is there no evidence that permit holders increase danger—the data suggests they may improve public safety.
Why This Matters to New York Gun Owners
In a state like New York, where gun laws are among the strictest in the country, understanding the real impact of concealed carry laws is critical.
If you live in Nassau, Suffolk, or New York City and want to protect yourself and your family legally, you need the right training and legal knowledge. Our New York State 18-Hour Concealed Carry Course satisfies all state requirements and gives you the confidence to carry safely and responsibly.
Learn more:
- Nassau County Pistol Permit Guide
- Suffolk County Pistol Licensing Process
- How to Apply for a NYC Concealed Carry Permit
Conclusion: Facts Over Fear
The argument that concealed carry increases violent crime simply doesn’t hold water. Based on the most robust dataset ever compiled on this topic, there is no link between more permit holders and more crime. There is no evidence that they contribute to stolen firearms. There is no evidence they interfere with law enforcement.
In fact, concealed carry permit holders are among the most responsible members of society. They respect the law, protect their communities, and, with proper training, become a force for good.
If you’re ready to become a safe, legal, and well-trained concealed carrier in New York, sign up for our next class today.
Because when seconds count, and the police are minutes away, you are your own first responder.
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